By Tom Micklem, Account Manager at Incisive Health
COP29 has so far been a muted affair, with a large number of global leaders not in attendance; including the leaders of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Russia, South Africa, and the USA. Elections in 64 countries, as well as European elections, reshaped international leadership, while geopolitical tensions continued to overshadow discussions.
Following optimism in 2023, with progress made on the topic of climate and health – for example the impact of extreme weather, droughts and flooding on physical and mental health and the changing geographies of vector-borne disease – we look at what has been achieved at COP29 this year, and what 2025 could look like.
Building momentum on climate change and health
Last year COP28 marked the inclusion of the first ever ‘Health Day’, marking growing recognition of the impacts of climate change on health that are already being felt around the world. In 2023, G20 health ministers had made climate and health a priority issue and agreed to the first ever high-level principles for health and climate action. There appeared to be political momentum and cause for optimism on this issue.
In May earlier this year, there were some signs of progress at the World Health Assembly, as WHO member states approved the first resolution on climate and health since 2008. The declaration included a commitment for countries to identify vulnerabilities and opportunities for adaptation and produce an action plan to strengthen climate resilience. There was also an agreement to mobilise resource, including funding to support “integrated action on climate change on health”, although the root causes of climate change were similarly side-stepped through omission of any reference to fossil fuels, or clean energy.
The widespread adoption of the WHA resolution demonstrates recognition for the need to act to mitigate the health effects of climate change. This will be taken forward by the WHO in 2025 as they work towards the development of a Global Plan of Action on Climate Change and Health, which is hoped to be adopted at WHA next year.
Limited progress at COP29
Unlike COP28, which saw progress through significant funding commitments and a political declaration on climate and health, COP29 produced only a single ‘win’ for climate and health.
The Baku COP Presidencies Continuity Coalition for Climate and Health was the result of a WHO hosted roundtable discussion, and committed all COP presidencies to ensuring that health is a central agenda item at future summits. Although ensuring health remains on the climate change agenda was rightly touted as a success, ultimately, action on reducing emissions is needed to tackle the root cause of the issue, and countries have so far failed to commit to action needed to meet climate goals stipulated in the Paris Agreement.
What can we expect in 2025?
The re-election of Donald Trump, and his commitment to once again withdraw from the Paris Agreement, was a major subject of discussion at the outset of the conference. The departure of the Argentinian negotiators from the COP29 conference also caused concern that countries with climate sceptic leadership could be emboldened to follow the lead of the USA, weakening required leadership and global cooperation on global climate action.
Even if the global south continues to push for action in the area of climate change and health, for any meaningful action, the European Union and China will need to step up and rise to the occasion, including on funding for health-specific climate adaptation, should there be a withdrawal of US leadership on the issue. The extent to which both actors are willing to do so is uncertain, as fragmented political leadership will make achieving multi-lateral agreement more difficult. Furthermore, if the world’s historically largest polluter refuses to partake in discussions on a new climate financing agreement, it is likely that other high-income countries will be less willing to contribute.
Cause for optimism?
Despite this, there is some reason to hope. Brazil, who hosted G20 this year and is scheduled to host COP30 next year, have pushed a climate and global health agenda, and maintaining momentum on these issues increases the likelihood that meaningful action can be achieved next year, particularly on issues such as climate change related infectious diseases that have had have particularly impacted the global South this year. Although health played a relatively minor role in the G20 Leaders’ Summit, the health ministers meeting in October led to, the establishment of the Global Coalition for Local and Regional Production, Innovation, and Equitable Access, which aims to overcome inequities in access to vaccines and boost vaccine production – although broad funding for the initiative is absent and participation is voluntary.
G20 members also agreed on the need to address the health crises and challenges posed by climate change including through sustained financial resources – although specific agreements on climate financing were not agreed, and support was instead issued for a New Collective Quantified Goal to be agreed at COP29. As South Africa prepares to host G20 in 2025, it is likely that they will place emphasis on financing for developing nations to support climate adaptation.
What next?
By February 10th 2025, we should have a clearer picture of climate policy prioritisation, since signatories of the Paris agreement must submit new plans, outlining strategies on tackling climate change and cut emissions by 2035.
But there are, of course, more players beyond politicians who have influence in this space. Political instability may paint an uncertain picture of what progress we can expect on action on climate change and its impact on health in 2025, there is plenty of room for the private sector to step in and help to fill the gap, through prioritising climate and health – developing innovative solutions to the problems of climate and health, investing in research and development into interventions and thought leadership and advocacy in this space.
If we can bring more actors into the fold, we may be able to recover some of the momentum from COP28.
If you have any questions for the team, or would like advice or support, please do get in touch via info@incisivehealth.com.