By Claire Hastings, Associate Director
Dancing, singing, fanfare, fun fare… the Lib Dems put the ‘party’ back in party conference in Brighton this week. Ahead of his closing speech, ABBA enthusiast Sir Ed Davey pranced on stage to a rapturous applause, with the other 71 Lib Dem MPs assembled behind as if proudly posing for a class photo, unashamedly taking every opportunity to celebrate their recent electoral success – the biggest third party seat share in a century and the Lib Dems’ largest ever number of MPs.
And why not celebrate? The relatively short (nine-year) recovery from one of the party’s worst election outcomes in 2015 is quite an achievement.
The question is now, how are the Lib Dems going to use their increased influence to grow their party and popularity among the electorate? How might they deliver the ‘Tory annihilation’ threatened by party leader Sir Ed Davey in his closing speech? And are there further gains to be made on Labour, with their relatively small share of the public vote?
The Lib Dem autumn conference 2024 provided us with a glimpse of both what the parliamentary party and the wider membership believe the road to a successful 2029 might look like.
‘Constructive opposition’ on health and care
With their manifesto commitments on health and care proving popular with the public, the Lib Dems are doubling down on health and care as their immediate priority.
Several of the conference policy motions, debated and passed by members, focussed on health and care: on equitable and improved outcomes throughout pregnancy and the neonatal period, including increased support following miscarriage, more inclusive support overall and the collection of data on miscarriage; and the Libs Dems’ plan to save the NHS, encompassing the party’s manifesto commitments on health; and a fair deal for family carers.
The many MPs speaking either in the main auditorium or fringe events had been well-briefed on health and care, passionately calling for more GPs, more dentists, faster cancer treatment and receiving care closer to home. Labour have made similar promises on health, and Lib Dem MPs promised to provide ‘constructive opposition’ to Labour to ensure they follow through – with some potential easy wins for the Lib Dems while the Government embark on the unenviable task of reducing waiting times and increasing productivity with what we assume (if the Chancellor’s rigid fiscal rules are applied as promised) will be limited additional funds.
Where the Lib Dems are providing more aggressive scrutiny is on capital spend and social care. MPs spoke of their local crumbling hospitals and the need to invest now to save money later; and Sir Ed lost no opportunity to remind us that carers were conspicuously absent from the Labour election manifesto and the King’s speech. While stressing that she will preside over a consensus-based committee, Chair-Elect of the Health and Social Care Select Committee, senior Lib Dem Layla Moran MP, told conference delegates that she would like the Committee to look into the cost of inaction on social care as a way to pressure the Government into action.
Economic credibility
The trouble with health and social care is that it’s all a bit expensive. While Labour’s rigid fiscal rules thus far haven’t proved popular, there is a danger the Lib Dems’ credibility – particularly among the ‘One-Nation’ Conservatives they have been coveting – will suffer if their constructive challenge to Labour is simply that they aren’t spending enough.
This wasn’t lost on party members, with many challenging their party throughout the conference to do a bit more thinking on their economic policies, particularly on macroeconomics, incentivisation of capital spending, improving economic sustainability and considering how to appeal to business leaders.
[E]U-turning the country on Europe
One economic, pro-business policy and route to economic growth that may be attractive to the centre-right and will always prove popular with Lib Dems is rebuilding a closer relationship with the EU. Polls have shown that many ‘leave’ voters have changed their minds on Brexit, and the younger generations in the UK tend to back re-joining the EU. But scarred by the dramatic failure of the ‘Bollocks to Brexit’ campaign that saw then party leader Jo Swinson loose her seat, you can understand why the Lib Dems might be reticent to be so bold again.
For now, the party seem content with calling for a Youth Mobility Scheme with the EU to improve opportunities for young people in Britain. But with Prime Minister Keir Starmer adamant that Britain will not rejoin the EU, there is a clear avenue for differentiation between the two parties, and one that may prove popular with many Labour-voting under 55s.
What’s next?
With the growth in their parliamentary party – now only 49 seats behind the Conservatives – it is clear that the Lib Dems are now also beginning to grow their ambition. Can they overtake the Tories to become the main opposition party; or even play a part in the next Government?
It’s clear these questions are now front and centre of the party’s mind. With only a 12% share of the vote, they have a lot more to do to change the hearts and minds of the country as a whole, which will be crucial to moving up from that third place spot. Can policies on the NHS, social care, the economy and Europe – accompanied by Sir Ed’s all signing, all dancing brand of optimism – take them there?
Of course their future success is, in part, contingent on the actions of the two main parties: if the Tories elect Robert Jenrick and lean further to the right, there is ample space for the Lib Dems to make significant gains simply by holding their natural home in the centre; and if Labour delivers ‘austerity 2.0' in their autumn budget, there may be ground to be gained from the centre-left. The Lib Dems will await these decisions over the next few months with bated breath.
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